Noda 'man of the moment' for Japan/he likened himself to an eel-like fish, saying "I can't be a goldfish".

Noda 'man of the moment' for Japan

Tanya Nolan reported this story on Tuesday, August 30, 2011 12:34:00

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TANYA NOLAN: Japan will today swear in its sixth prime minister in five years, as the low-key and self-deprecating former finance minister Yoshihiko Noda takes over the leadership of the ruling Democratic Party.

In a final campaign pitch to his party, he likened himself to an eel-like fish, saying "I can't be a goldfish".

It was an attempt to differentiate himself from some of his more charismatic rivals, whom he narrowly defeated in a run-off vote in five-way contest for the top job.

And director of the Stanford Japan Centre in Kyoto, Andrew Horvat says his conservative appeal is his major asset, describing him as the man of the moment for Japan.

I spoke to Andrew Horvat earlier today and began by asking him what we are to make of this self-declared "loach" and fiscal hawk.

ANDREW HORVAT: I think the key to this is that he is a compromise candidate but this is a period where Japan needs compromise. So he is in that sense the man of the moment.

TANYA NOLAN: What do you mean that Japan needs compromise?

ANDREW HORVAT: Politically speaking, the ruling party is split as you know, between a kind of a backroom wheeler dealer called Ozawa who has some very serious questions he needs to answer with regard to sources of political donations.

He is in theory the single most powerful person in the ruling party and he holds 150 members hostage, he can actually tell them how to vote. On the other hand there are these so-called, I guess you would call them the more enlightened, progressive elements, the people who want to see Japan run on the basis of policy and not on the basis of politics.

And Noda definitely is part of this group. There is a permanent split in this party. There is also a permanent split in Japan's parliamentary politics, because the upper house is not in the hands of the ruling party.

So this is a stalemate and that's why so many prime ministers have lasted only one year, because they can't get any legislation through.

The reason I say that compromise is the flavour of the moment, because Noda is actually someone who is liked and shall we say respected by the opposition parties, whose acquiescence to new legislation is absolutely necessary.

TANYA NOLAN: We're hearing that Noda only won in a run-off vote in a tightly contested field and that he doesn't have a factional allegiance. How tenuous then is his grip on power?

ANDREW HORVAT: Well factions in Japan are no longer quite as important as they used to be because factions used to be held together by money. There isn't much money going around in politics these days and also Noda is a new kind of politician, he's the first graduate of the Matsushita Institute of Politics and Management - Government and Management.

So he's the first Japanese prime minister to actually have formal policy study training and I think this is extremely important, very crucial.

TANYA NOLAN: How crucial do you think it will be to his longevity and to his ability to unite his party and the parliament?

ANDREW HORVAT: First of all I think he's able to reach out to the opposition, which means that he's going to be able to pass legislation which someone who was shall we say more divisive, someone like his predecessor Kan or the somewhat, shall we say, mercurial and not particularly competent predecessor of Kan, Mr Hatoyama, was not able to do.

So the fact that Noda is low key, the fact that he doesn't, shall we say, he doesn't, he's doesn't, he's not a lightning rod for contrary opinion, that he listens, that he is shall we say, not charismatic, is actually to his advantage and to the advantage of the process in Japan at the moment.

TANYA NOLAN: And of course the Fukushima nuclear crisis is still unfolding, how crucial will his handling of it be to his prime ministership?

ANDREW HORVAT: Well let me answer that in this way - of course it's crucial, but this is a finance minister, he's a finance minister who's on record as saying we need to raise taxes to tackle the Fukushima disaster because Japan's public debt is 200 per cent of its GDP.

So there's no, you know, you can't ask for more bonds. Now he - it just so happens that if you, you know, bother to read the polls, which he obviously has read, there is public approval for raising taxes.

So he's not one of these really kind of, you know, weak-kneed politicians who just absolutely runs away the moment that the word tax is mentioned, he actually says we have to engage the public to raise taxes at a time of crisis and the Fukushima disaster is a crisis.

So this is a person who is, you know, you know he's a very businesslike individual and I think we can expect a lot from him.

TANYA NOLAN: And what must Noda avoid doing if he is to outlast his predecessor, Naoto Kan, who only lasted 15 months in the job?

ANDREW HORVAT: Well by Japanese standards 15 months is not bad these days, his predecessor lasted 12 I think or even less. What must he do? He must reach out to the opposition, he must fine tune the so-called manifesto of his party to include a tax hike.

He has to reach out to the public for further understanding of this and I think he has a good chance of achieving that yes.

TANYA NOLAN: Andrew Horvat, thankyou very much for your time.

Andrew Horvat is the director of the Stanford Japan Centre in Kyoto.