Is climate change 2 blame 4 Horn of Africa drought?too premature to say but d correlation between climate change,extreme weather events hard to ignore

12/08/2011

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

That the drought ravaging the Horn of Africa is being caused by climate change may be too premature to say but the correlation between climate change and extreme weather events hard to ignore.



Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

A displaced family from Somalia sits in front of their makeshift shelter in south Mogadishu

The enduring and worsening crisis that millions of starving Africans face is being termed as the worst drought that the region has suffered in 60 years. Livestock are dropping dead, food prices are through the roof and more than 11 million people (a number that is growing) are in need of food assistance in Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti. Tens of thousands of people have died in the past few months and going by what the chief of the United Nations' Refugee Agency has to say, the situation in East Africa right now is the world's "worst humanitarian disaster."

Some experts believe that the drought conditions multiplied manifold due to a a strong La Niña in 2010 and 2011. It was one of the fiercest La Niñas in the past 50 years; in December, NASA oceanographer and climatologist Bill Patzert said the "powerful little lady" was making itself felt across the earth, with droughts in Argentina and floods in Australia and Asia.

Then there's the possibility that climate change is playing a malicious role in Africa. According to ABC7 senior meteorologist Bob Ryan, "Ethiopia goes through extended droughts on a regular basis. But there's mounting evidence that there is a higher probability of extremes in drought and precipitation in a changing climate."

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

A displaced woman from Somalia stands with her malnourished child at a hospital in south Mogadishu

The behaviour of today's climate is fulfilling predictions made by early weather models built as far back as 20 years ago, says Ryan, with greater temperature increases at the poles and rapidly melting sea ice. "Whether you believe the human factor is significant or insignificant, there certainly are more and more indications that the climate is changing," he says. "And in some regions, the climate is undergoing rather rapid changes in terms of long-term atmosphere, weather and ocean environments."

In fact, going by what the he head of the African Development Bank says, the famine in Africa's fragile Horn region has been caused by climate change and a collective failure to end the Somali civil war. "This was not a tsunami that took us by surprise. Mother Nature can be blamed for much of what is happening but, before food shortages become famine, there's something else that comes into play," Donald Kaberuka told AFP.

A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007 had clearly stated that Africa will suffer the brunt of climate change. The report said that the projected increases in greenhouse gas emissions will put up to 1.8 billion more Africans "at risk of water stress" this century. Modest rises in temperature will reduce water availability in parts of the continent.

Sadly, Africa is the Continent with the least responsibility for the climate change and yet is perversely the Continent most at risk if greenhouse gases are not cut.

Before we click on to other stories, here a stark reminder of why we need to fight climate change...

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

A severely malnourished refugee child from Somalia, receives treatment inside the stabilization ward in Dadaab, near the Kenya-Somalia border.

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

Somali refugees walk between tents at the Ifo extension refugee camp in Dadaab, near the Kenya-Somalia border

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

Newly arrived Somali men jostle to queue outside a food distribution centre at the Ifo refugee camp in Dadaab, near the Kenya-Somalia border.

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

A woman feeds her malnourished child at a paediatric ward in Banadir hospital in Somalia's capital Mogadishu.

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

Workers offload emergency assistance packages from a UNHCR-chartered cargo plane at the airport in Somalia's capital Mogadishu.

Is climate change to blame for Horn of Africa drought?

A refugee from Baidoa region in Somalia, carries his severely malnourished son inside MSF clinic at UNHCR transit centre in Dolo Ado.

Source: India Syndicate, Agencies
Images: Reuters

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