Six-phase Bihar elections from Oct 21 to Nov 20-Sep 7, 2010,

Six-phase Bihar elections from Oct 21 to Nov 20

TNN, Sep 7, 2010, 12.14am IST


NEW DELHI: The Nitish Kumar vs Lalu Prasad battle for the reins of Bihar will be played over a six-phase election beginning on October 21. On November 24, it will be known if Nitish's development plank gets him a fresh mandate and forces Lalu into another term in opposition -- a dire prospect for the Yadav satrap who is also without power at the Centre and is faced with a serious threat to his space among the A-list of politicians.

On the margins will be Congress, bereft of any leader and grassroot workers but aspiring for revival by contesting all 243 constituencies. Its performance -- especially whether it woos back a sizeable section of Muslims --will have a huge bearing on the fortunes of Lalu, who has for close to two decades been the biggest beneficiary of the support of the minority community.

The six-phase election will take place on October 21 (47 assembly constituencies), October 24 (45 constituencies), October 28 (48), November 1 (42), November 9 (35) and November 20 (26). In all, Bihar has 56,943 polling stations. Byelection in Banka parliamentary constituency will be held on November 1. The seat was vacated after the death of independent MP Digvijay Singh.

Unlike many states, electoral adjustment among all key players of Bihar has already been firmed up. Nitish's JD(U) is contesting from 138 constituencies and BJP from 103. The CM hopes to cash in on his effort to restore governance, especially an improved law and order situation and repair of infrastructure, to a state which under Lalu's hegemony acquired the "badland" tag.

The JD(U) leader has also made successful forays into new sections -- most backward castes, the most disempowered among the dalits, even women.

He, however, has to contend with apprehensions of sections of upper caste that another term may encourage the chief minister to revive his plan to protect the rights of sharecroppers. Dip in BJP's appeal, particularly weakening of its hold among upper castes, is another source of worry.

On the face of it, Lalu along with his partner Ramvilas Paswan presents a formidable coalition. Lalu's sway over Yadavs -- the single most numerous caste -- remains intact. He has also reason to be hopeful that large sections of Muslims will not turn their back on him, at least not yet. The partnership with Paswan assures the RJD strongman of the support of the politically assertive dalit community of the LJP leader. They among themselves have enough votes to strike deals with the politically ambitious belonging to castes which are perceived to be opposed to them.

The RJD-LJP alliance is handicapped by the memories of Lalu raj. The projection of Lalu as the chief ministerial candidate can push the upper castes back into the embrace of JD(U)-BJP or Congress. The drift of the most backward castes, and non-Paswan dalits and, even Muslims, away from the RJD is a bigger cause of concern.

Lalu seems to recognize this. That was why he gave in to Paswan's demand, exorbitant according to many, for 75 seats.

The generosity showed Lalu's desperation to keep an ally who was being vigorously courted by Congress. Without Paswan, Lalu would have been further marginalized.

Congress has decided to go it alone in keeping with its desire to regain the space it lost in the Hindi heartland in the aftermath of the Mandir-Mandal convulsions. The task was never simpler. For, unlike in neighbouring UP, the party has not been able to capitalise on the signs, however faint, of yearning of upper castes and Muslims to return to their old favourite. The party is looking at a modest tally of just about a score of seats, but will love playing the kingmaker if the elections don't throw up a clear winner.

There are two firsts related to the forthcoming election. With increasing demand to replace Electronic Voting Machines with ballot paper, EC, for the first time, has planned a two-stage randomisation of these machines to prove that they cannot and, are not, manipulated.

In the first stage, all EVMs stored in the district storage centre will be randomised by the district election officer in the presence of representatives of recognised political parties for allocation assembly constituency wise. After the EVMs in a constituency are prepared for poll by the returning officer and the ballot units are fitted with ballot papers, the EVMs will again be randomised to decide the actual polling stations in which they will be ultimately used. The second stage randomisation will also be done in the presence of observers and candidates or their election agents.

Also, for the first time, names/addresses/phone numbers of observers in each constituency will be publicised in local newspapers so that general public can approach them for any grievance.


Read more: Six-phase Bihar elections from Oct 21 to Nov 20 - The Times of India