Bihar Election 2010: Three Contenders-October 14, 2010

Bihar Election 2010: Three Contenders
Published on: October 14, 2010 - 23:29

More in: Opinion

BY ASHOK THAKUR

ELECTIONS in India are among the biggest democratic festivals all around the world. Within India, elections in Bihar stand apart from elections elsewhere in the country. The very flavour of Bihar elections is in a class of its own.
Development over Caste

When we closely observe the nitty-gritty of the upcoming Bihar polls, many interesting facts surface. The Congress is on the rise as it is in Uttar Pradesh, but would it perform as spectacularly as it did in UP in 2009? We have to wait till November 24 for the answer to this question. Actually, the basic difference between Congress in Bihar and in UP is that UP has Rae Bareli and Amethi, the Gandhi family strongholds.
The battle-lines are now clearly drawn for the Bihar Assembly elections. The ensuing poll assumes all the more significance because in the present calendar year, this is the only state where elections are being held. All eyes will be riveted on the JD (U) strongman, Mr Nitish Kumar, who has been credited with taking Bihar out of the morass, and putting it back on the track of development.
Poll analysts will be equally eager to watch Mr Lalu Yadav, who, so far, has been berated for non-development in Bihar, but has assured that if returned to power, he would write a turnaround story of Bihar similar to his work as Union railway minister.
The six-phase elections, slated from October 21 to November 20, will also be a litmus test for Mr Nitish Kumar and may herald a new chapter in Bihar if the poll is contested on the development plank. Otherwise, the state is infamous for elections being held on caste lines followed by caste carnage.
But in the last few years, things have changed for the better. Nobody wants any bloodshed any more. The massacre unleashed by upper castes, or the killings by Dalits have now become a thing of the past. No riots, no carnage, or no major bloodshed were witnessed in the last five years.
The clearest evidence was provided recently when the Ayodhya verdict saw a lukewarm response from all the quarters. The indifferent response of Hindus as well as Muslims show they have moved much ahead from what had happened in 1989, when the country witnessed one of the worst communal riots in Bhagalpur during peak Ram Mandir agitation.
Lalu’s Predicament
The elections for 243 seats will be a make-or-break poll for Mr Lalu Yadav, who has been pushed to the margins in his home state. After failing to stitch a grand alliance with the Congress, Mr Lalu Yadav preferred the next best option. He tied up with his foe-turned-friend, Mr Ram Vilas Paswan, and, in a tactical pact, conceded 75 seats to the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), while retaining the remaining 168 for his party to contest.
It is believed that most of the seats given to the Lok Janshakti Party are the rejected constituencies of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (where Mr Lalu’s men can never win). But then, Mr Paswan, who himself lost the Lok Sabha polls last year, knows very well that beggars cannot be choosers.
The biggest worry for Mr Lalu Yadav, as of now, is the three-way split of minority votes. Had the Congress, the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Lok Janshakti Party entered into a grand alliance, the minorities would have voted the group to power, as it had happened during 2004 Lok Sabha polls.
But this Assembly election, a large chunk of minorities are likely to vote for Congress, given the fact that its state leadership is headed by a young Muslim leader, Mr Mehboob Ali Kaiser, handpicked by Mr Rahul Gandhi.
Besides, those Muslims who still swear by Mr Lalu will show their inclination towards the RJD-LJP combine. But a third section of Muslims, who abhor the Bharatiya Janata Party, but has a strong liking for Mr Nitish, will root for the JD (U) nominees.
Interestingly, Ms Rabri is contesting from two constituencies–Raghopur and Sonepur. Her rivals aver that Ms Rabri’s dual contest is an indication that Mr Lalu has conceded defeat even before the battle has begun. But RJD sources say that in case Mr Lalu comes to power and becomes the chief minister, he would like to enter the Assembly from one of the two constituencies.
Another significant issue is the trend of upper caste voters. While the forwards and backwards jointly voted for JD (U) in 2005 elections, it will not be a cakewalk for Mr Nitish this time. Upset over being marginalised after being voted to power, the upper castes have decided to throw their weight behind the Congress, and teach Mr Nitish a lesson.
Mr Lalu’s advantage is that his MY (Muslim-Yadav) combination, to a large extent, is still intact. And as he himself admitted recently, “I lost 2005 polls because the Yadav fraternity became a bit lax. That’s why my candidates lost with a slender margin. But this time MY will bless me (MY in Bhojpuri means mother) as Yadavs have decided to vote for me in a consolidated form.”
Congess-JD(U) Tussle
Mr Nitish, however, remains unfazed. He says he has worked for everyone, irrespective of caste, creed and religion. “I have worked tirelessly for you in the last five years… given you an identity. Now you can proclaim you are a Bihari and not feel ashamed, like in the earlier days. You can travel with your family anywhere, anytime in Bihar. Criminals have been sent behind bars. The kidnapping industry has been shutdown. Now, it’s time for my remuneration. Give me another five years to take Bihar to new heights,” Mr Nitish urged while opening his election campaign.
It is believed that his own caste men–Kurmis, besides Koeris, Other Backwards Castes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Class (EBCs) and a section of Dalits will root for Mr Nitish. Add to this the BJP traditional vote base of Brahmins, Vaishyas and Kayasthas, who together constitute 10 per cent votes. The combination is lethal on paper.
But the Congress could play spoilsport. Already on ascendance, Congress is the third angle in this triangular contest. With just nine MLAs (in the outgoing Assembly) to boast of, the Congress has already touched its rock bottom, and has nothing to lose.
Contesting all 243 seats, if it manages to even double its tally, the party could assert that it has electorally grown 100 per cent. And if in case it bags at least 35 seats, nobody can stop it from becoming a kingmaker, if not the king.–INAV

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