Wise Dalai Lama tests both India, China
In responsibly preparing his people for an orderly succession, the ageing Dalai Lama has set the stage for a more difficult phase in Tibetan politics that will severely test the political skills of Delhi and Beijing.
For more than five decades since he took exile in India, the Dalai Lama as the spiritual and temporal head of the Tibetans, has effectively managed the internal and external dimensions of Tibetan politics.
The wisdom of the Dalai Lama, as the sole spokesman of his people, had made it relatively easy for Delhi, Beijing and the international community to cope with the political and diplomatic challenges posed by the Tibetan movement.
While his authority will not in any way diminish after he steps down as the political leader, India and China will have to deal with a new generation of Tibetan leaders who could steer their movement in ways that the world is not ready for.
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If his decision helps strengthen the democratic foundations of the Tibetan movement, both India and China must now learn to cope with multiple voices and political trends that genuine pluralism brings about.
Until now China could focus its relentless ire and fire on the persona of the Dalai Lama, and India could rely on his personal authority and judgement to cope with the impact of the Tibetan question on the normalisation of Sino-Indian relations. Neither Delhi nor Beijing can now take that political luxury for granted.
The Dalai Lama has constructed an opportunity and a challenge for Beijing. By shedding his political responsibilities, the Dalai Lama has opened new space in the stalled negotiations with the Chinese government on the future of Tibet.
On his part, the Dalai Lama had repeatedly declared that he had no intention to reclaim his political authority in Tibet in the event of a final settlement with Beijing. His latest move lends credibility to that claim and should make it easier for China to embark on a more productive dialogue.
At the same time, the Tibetan leader is suggesting that China is wrong in betting that it can simply wait out the Dalai Lama and get a better handle on Tibet after his death or serious illness.
More fundamentally, the Dalai Lama wants to stay a step ahead of Beijing in setting the terms for the tumultuous politics that might follow his death and the choosing of the next Dalai Lama.
The Dalai Lama’s speech on Friday in Dharamsala to mark the 52nd anniversary of the Tibetan uprising in 1959 will be watched carefully for any hints on the question of his spiritual succession.
That issue is likely to be far more central to the future of the Tibetan movement than his political succession. It will have a big effect on China, where the Tibetan people want their rightful place, and India on whose soil they are exiled.
A contested spiritual succession — China finding its own reincarnation and the Tibetans in India announcing their own — will add another layer to the already intractable problem and could further strain Sino-Indian relations.
While the Dalai Lama’s new approach will generate new headaches for Beijing, it will demand far more purposefulness and sophistication on the part of Delhi.
The recent dealing with the other Tibetan Lama on Indian soil — the Karmapa — underlined the current incoherence in Delhi’s Tibet policy. The police and chief minister of Himachal Pradesh were seen holding forth that the monk was a “Chinese agent”, the media lapping it up, and the central government finally coming around to giving him a “clean chit”.
Delhi needs to do a lot better than that in handling Tibetan affairs on Indian soil. For the Dalai Lama’s latest move is bound to transform the politics of Himalayan Buddhism and complicate the trans-Himalayan dynamic between Delhi and Beijing.
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