The arithmetic of alliance-Political analysts see a high probability of a SP and Congress post-poll tie-up,their present posturing-Jan 2, 2012

The arithmetic of alliance

TNN Jan 2, 2012, 07.02AM IST


As UP heads for the mother of all political battles, pundits are more or less unanimous about one outcome - there would be no clear winner. So, who will form the next government after the seven-phase grind in February will depend on the post-election chemistry. The party with the best disposition form bonds with others will outpace its rivals in the race to the crown.

"The parties though claim of getting absolute majority, do not seem to be confident about results. Hence they are trying to confuse voters by accusing rivals of having a tacit understanding, says a political analyst. "Given the uncertainty about the poll results, smaller parties will play a crucial role government formation. Further, besides Muslim factor, the alliances among big parties would take place with 2012 Lok Sabha elections in mind," he adds.




A few days back, journalists in Lucknow received an e-mail from bspbjpfriendship@ gmail.com 'exposing' behind-the-curtains bonhomie between BSP and BJP, although the two parties attack each other in public. Referring to the controversy over the BSP government 'obliging' BJP leaders by paying their hotel bills during their stay in Lucknow to take part in the national executive meet in June, the sender requested media persons `to do something about the double standards' of the two parties.

The leaders of the both the parties were quick to issue denials but the email, presumably a brainchild of a mischievous political mind, fuelled speculation about the possibilities of a BSP-BJP alliance in case none of the parties in fray get majority. It's not about BJP and BSP alone. When SP chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, in his election rally on November 16, appeared soft on the Congress and accused BJP and BSP of having a hidden agenda, the word in political corridors was that he was leaving scope for Congress support in case party fell short of numbers after polls. On the other hand, UP chief minister Mayawati while addressing a rally on November 27 had accused SP and BJP of `being hand in glove' to polarize people on communal grounds. On the other hand, the BJP has accused SP, BSP and Congress of projecting each other as rivals, although SP and BSP are supporting Congress-led UPA government and the latter as saving Mayawati and Mulayam from CBI in corruption cases.

Political analysts see a high probability of a SP and Congress post-poll tie-up, their present p o s t u r i n g notwithstanding. "At present dealing with highly volatile and non-dependable allies like DMK and Trinamool, Congress badly needs a stable partner like SP with its 23 MPs. If Mulayam's party gives stability to the Central government, Congress - which is expecting to jack up its tally - can help him form the government.

But, for that SP will have to improve its performance," says an analyst. Though the four major players - BSP, SP, BJP and Congress - have ruled out postpoll alliances with each other, history shows that nothing is impossible in politics. The quest to grab power and not ideology decides alliances. Mayawati became the chief minister with BJP support in 1995, 1997 and 2002. The BSP had contested 1993 assembly elections in pre-poll alliance with SP and in 1996 with Congress. On the other hand, BJP supported Mulayam when he became chief minister for the first time in 1989.

Later, when BJP pulled the rug, he continued in office with the Congress's support. In 2004, Mulayam came to power with a 'helpful' BJP's Speaker Keshari Nath Tripathi who approved the defection by BSP MLAs, who supported the SP to form the government. As of now, only Congress has announced to enter a pre-poll pact with the Rashtriya Lok Dal. Although small, the RLD has influence in the Jat belt of western UP. With handful of MLAs and MPs, the RLD has been the major gainer of political instability between 1990 and 2007.